St. Truiden vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St. Truiden face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Charleroi at Daio Wasabi Stayen in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, St. Truiden have posted 5W 2D 3L at Daio Wasabi Stayen — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charleroi — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Charleroi, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for St. Truiden.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
It is worth noting that Charleroi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus Charleroi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 56% | Charleroi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.23 xG and Charleroi 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / defence 0.991 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 St. Truiden games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 43%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | Charleroi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 32% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG St. Truiden 1.23 / Charleroi 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.963 / def 0.991 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Charleroi kick off?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Charleroi part of?
St. Truiden vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 32% chance of winning, Charleroi a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St. Truiden and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 2W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 5W.
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.96x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.90
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.70
1.47
Charleroi xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.47 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 23W 7D 13L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 18W 8D 17L from 43 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.77 PPG, Charleroi on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (13W 3D 5L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 2D 9L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Charleroi in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 23W 7D 13L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Charleroi away?
St. Truiden's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.52 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Charleroi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Charleroi won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Charleroi have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when St. Truiden 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 57%, Charleroi 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (St. Truiden) and 38% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Charleroi in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 43% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of St. Truiden's recent games and 38% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Charleroi tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.