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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as St. Truiden and Cercle Brugge drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.61 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.15 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 45% | Draw 30% | Cercle Brugge 24%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.20 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights