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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as St. Truiden edge out Antwerp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Antwerp 1-0 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.31 xG and Antwerp 0.86 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Antwerp attack 0.64 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 46% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 23%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 60%, Antwerp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.23 PPG, Antwerp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights