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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden and Antwerp finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.22 xG and Antwerp 1.44 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Antwerp attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 40%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 48%, Antwerp 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.21 PPG, Antwerp 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights