St. Truiden 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs Antwerp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — St. Truiden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for St. Truiden, 2 for Antwerp and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended St. Truiden 0–1 Antwerp — a Antwerp win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 46% versus Antwerp 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Antwerp 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: St. Truiden surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Antwerp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Antwerp 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / defence 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.019 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.318. St. Truiden's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 48 games and Antwerp's last 48.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.58 | Draw 3.05 | Antwerp 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 30% (last 10 home games) | Antwerp 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG St. Truiden 1.11 / Antwerp 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / def 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.019 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Antwerp xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Antwerp a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 48 games and Antwerp's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
28%
3.58
33%
3.05
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Antwerp xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.35 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 15W 15D 18L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 10L across 48 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's recent record.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.75 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs Antwerp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.33 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antwerp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won Antwerp 6-1 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Antwerp 1-4 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 38%, Antwerp 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (St. Truiden) and 42% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 42%; St. Truiden have failed to score in 42% of games; Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs Antwerp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and Antwerp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 38% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and Antwerp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of St. Truiden's recent games and 42% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 71% of Antwerp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as St. Truiden and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Antwerp 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Antwerp attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.