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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St. Truiden and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden and Anderlecht finished level at 2-2 at Daio Wasabi Stayen, Regular Season - 11, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.09 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. St. Truiden beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Anderlecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 29% | Draw 32% | Anderlecht 39%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 61%, Anderlecht 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St. Truiden's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Anderlecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, Anderlecht 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights