SK Beveren vs Genk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Genk meet at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SK Beveren's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren at Freethiel Stadion this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Genk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Genk arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — SK Beveren have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Genk in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Genk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SK Beveren goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 52% versus Genk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 64% | Genk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.57 xG and Genk 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / defence 1.000 | Genk attack 0.831 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Data: 10 SK Beveren games / 40 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 48% | Draw 25% | Genk 27%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Genk 3.70. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genk (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SK Beveren 30% | Genk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 48% | Draw 25% | Genk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG SK Beveren 1.57 / Genk 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.862 / def 1.000 | Genk attack 0.831 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Genk xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Genk kick off?
SK Beveren vs Genk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Genk part of?
SK Beveren vs Genk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 48% chance of winning, Genk a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SK Beveren and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Genk?
Record (1 meetings): SK Beveren 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and Genk in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SK Beveren's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.83x) against SK Beveren's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.99
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.69
1.12
Genk xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.12 for Genk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 31W 5D 6L from 42 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 10L across 42 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 18W 1D 2L from 21 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 6W 8D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Genk in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 31W 5D 6L in their last 42 games (2.33 PPG), while Genk have gone 16W 16D 10L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Genk away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.62 PPG; Genk away: 1.24 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Genk in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SK Beveren
0
Draws
1
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Genk?
From 1 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 0, Genk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Genk 4-0 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 43%, Genk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SK Beveren) and 62% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Genk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 57% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SK Beveren's matches and 62% of Genk's.
Do SK Beveren and Genk tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.