RAAL La Louvière 0-0 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Easi Arena to take on RAAL La Louvière. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RAAL La Louvière — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière's home record at Easi Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Union St. Gilloise are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
RAAL La Louvière trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 58% versus Union St. Gilloise 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 48% | Union St. Gilloise 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 0.96 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.685 / defence 1.069 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.223 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.157. RAAL La Louvière's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 RAAL La Louvière games / 34 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 21% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union St. Gilloise are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RAAL La Louvière 50% | Union St. Gilloise 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 21% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG RAAL La Louvière 0.96 / Union St. Gilloise 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.685 / def 1.069 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.223 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Union St. Gilloise xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
RAAL La Louvière 0 - 0 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 21% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (0.69) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
21%
4.69
31%
3.19
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.47
1.51
Union St. Gilloise xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
5%
21.28
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.51 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RAAL La Louvière's recent record stands at 19W 8D 6L from 33 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 3L across 33 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RAAL La Louvière on 1.97 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, RAAL La Louvière have managed 10W 4D 2L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 11W 4D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.18 scored and 0.70 conceded. Union St. Gilloise's attacking output running into RAAL La Louvière's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 19W 8D 6L in their last 33 games (1.97 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 24W 6D 3L in their last 33 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 2.12 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.31 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
1
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 2-1 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 50%, Union St. Gilloise 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (RAAL La Louvière) and 56% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RAAL La Louvière's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.96 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.51 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 21% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 47%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, Union St. Gilloise 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.97 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.