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Stalemate at RAAL La Louvière's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.96 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.51 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 21% | Draw 31% | Union St. Gilloise 47%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, Union St. Gilloise 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.97 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights