RAAL La Louvière 1-4 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Club Brugge KV travel to Easi Arena to take on RAAL La Louvière. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
RAAL La Louvière — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Easi Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Club Brugge KV stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Club Brugge KV have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Club Brugge KV's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Club Brugge KV — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, Club Brugge KV 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with RAAL La Louvière winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RAAL La Louvière in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Club Brugge KV in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 49% versus Club Brugge KV 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 51% | Club Brugge KV 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.41 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.112 / defence 1.075 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.163 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.239. Data: 37 RAAL La Louvière games / 37 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Club Brugge KV 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Club Brugge KV at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RAAL La Louvière 50% | Club Brugge KV 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.41 / Club Brugge KV 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 1.112 / def 1.075 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.163 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Club Brugge KV xG
60%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV?
RAAL La Louvière 1 - 4 Club Brugge KV.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 35% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV?
Record (2 meetings): RAAL La Louvière 2W | Draws 0 | Club Brugge KV 0W.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (1.11) and Club Brugge KV's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus RAAL La Louvière's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.09
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.96
1.55
Club Brugge KV xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.55 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
RAAL La Louvière come into this having played 43 games, going 8W 14D 21L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.26 PPG from 43 outings (31W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Club Brugge KV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Club Brugge KV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of RAAL La Louvière — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
RAAL La Louvière's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (13W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Club Brugge KV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.33 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Club Brugge KV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 8W 14D 21L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 31W 4D 8L in their last 43 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.10 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.95 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2026, when Club Brugge KV won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RAAL La Louvière's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
RAAL La Louvière
0
Draws
1
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV?
From 3 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, Club Brugge KV have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when RAAL La Louvière 1-4 Club Brugge KV.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RAAL La Louvière see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 38%, Club Brugge KV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (RAAL La Louvière) and 62% (Club Brugge KV).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play Club Brugge KV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent matches and 62% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 62% of Club Brugge KV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Club Brugge KV run riot with a 1-4 hammering of RAAL La Louvière.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat RAAL La Louvière 1-4 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.41 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.55 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 35% | Draw 24% | Club Brugge KV 41%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 51%, Club Brugge KV 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.