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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as RAAL La Louvière defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière beat Charleroi 1-0 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.54 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.69 / defence 1.25 against Charleroi attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 43%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a RAAL La Louvière win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, Charleroi 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Charleroi's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights