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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as RAAL La Louvière defy the odds to beat Cercle Brugge 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière beat Cercle Brugge 2-1 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.57 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.67 xG, a combined 1.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.52 / defence 0.70 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.88 / defence 0.78, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 25% | Draw 43% | Cercle Brugge 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a RAAL La Louvière win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 13%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 36% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 44%, Cercle Brugge 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights