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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Patrostadion, Quarter-finals, as Patro Eisden and Beerschot VA drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.14 xG and Beerschot VA 1.50 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beerschot VA attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 29% | Draw 26% | Beerschot VA 46%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 57%, Beerschot VA 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Patro Eisden's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights