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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 17, as OH Leuven and Zulte Waregem drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.52 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 48% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 26%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 38%, Zulte Waregem 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights