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Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 0-0 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.98 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.17 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 31% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 40%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 34%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights