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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as RAAL La Louvière defy the odds to beat OH Leuven 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RAAL La Louvière beat OH Leuven 1-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.72 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 54% | Draw 27% | RAAL La Louvière 20%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a RAAL La Louvière win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 33%, RAAL La Louvière 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights