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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven and KV Mechelen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven and KV Mechelen finished level at 2-2 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 0.99 xG and KV Mechelen 1.08 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KV Mechelen outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against KV Mechelen attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 32% | Draw 31% | KV Mechelen 37%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 34%, KV Mechelen 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

KV Mechelen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.06 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights