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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Gent 4-0 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.42 xG and Gent 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gent landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Gent attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 39% | Draw 29% | Gent 33%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 33%, Gent 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Gent's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.04 PPG, Gent 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights