🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Genk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genk beat OH Leuven 0-2 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 40, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.68 xG and Genk 1.57 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Genk attack 1.26 / defence 1.33, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 41% | Draw 23% | Genk 36%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Genk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 38%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Genk's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights