OH Leuven 3-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to King Power at Den Dreef Stadion to face OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genk have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward OH Leuven. A 0.80 PPG lead over Genk (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — OH Leuven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Genk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for OH Leuven, 3 for Genk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with OH Leuven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 56% versus Genk 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 51% | Genk 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.23 xG and Genk 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.974 / defence 0.980 | Genk attack 1.034 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.007. Data: 31 OH Leuven games / 31 Genk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 41% | Draw 29% | Genk 30%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Genk 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Genk lead the H2H ledger, but OH Leuven carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is OH Leuven at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: OH Leuven 60% | Genk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 41% | Draw 29% | Genk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG OH Leuven 1.23 / Genk 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.974 / def 0.980 | Genk attack 1.034 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Genk xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Genk kick off?
OH Leuven vs Genk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
OH Leuven 3 - 1 Genk.
Where is OH Leuven vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Genk part of?
OH Leuven vs Genk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 41% chance of winning, Genk a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OH Leuven and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
Record (4 meetings): OH Leuven 1W | Draws 0 | Genk 3W.
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Genk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
OH Leuven's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.03x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.41
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Genk xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for OH Leuven and 1.02 for Genk, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
OH Leuven come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 12D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (15W 13D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.41 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
OH Leuven's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OH Leuven are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.34 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Genk in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Genk have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Genk away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.47 PPG; Genk away: 1.21 PPG.
Have OH Leuven or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
OH Leuven have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Genk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OH Leuven
1
Draws
7
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 2, Genk have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when OH Leuven 0-2 Genk.
Who has won more matches between OH Leuven and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Genk see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 53%, Genk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (OH Leuven) and 42% (Genk).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of OH Leuven's games and 58% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OH Leuven vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of OH Leuven's recent games and 42% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Genk tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genk in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Genk 3-1 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.23 xG and Genk 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Genk attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 41% | Draw 29% | Genk 30%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 51%, Genk 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.10 PPG, Genk 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.