OH Leuven 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OH Leuven at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OH Leuven vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OH Leuven and Charleroi meet at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
OH Leuven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
OH Leuven's home record at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — OH Leuven are significantly better at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for OH Leuven, 0 for Charleroi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with OH Leuven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
OH Leuven — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OH Leuven 48% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OH Leuven 39% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OH Leuven 1.41 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OH Leuven attack 0.902 / defence 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.088 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Data: 60 OH Leuven games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24%. Fair-value odds: OH Leuven 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Charleroi 4.17. OH Leuven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OH Leuven are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OH Leuven if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: OH Leuven 30% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OH Leuven vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 1 | Venue: King Power at Den Dreef Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG OH Leuven 1.41 / Charleroi 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OH Leuven attack 0.902 / def 0.810 | Charleroi attack 1.088 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: OH Leuven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Charleroi xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OH Leuven vs Charleroi kick off?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 28 March 2025 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What was the final score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
OH Leuven 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is OH Leuven vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion.
What competition is OH Leuven vs Charleroi part of?
OH Leuven vs Charleroi is a Conference League Play-off Group - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives OH Leuven a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making OH Leuven the favourite.
Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both OH Leuven and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will OH Leuven vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): OH Leuven 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in?
OH Leuven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OH Leuven's attack at 0.90x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.09x) against OH Leuven's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OH Leuven Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.18
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OH Leuven xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Charleroi xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OH Leuven and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OH Leuven and 0.98 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OH Leuven vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OH Leuven come into this having played 66 games, going 19W 22D 25L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Charleroi sit at 1.24 PPG from 66 outings (22W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for OH Leuven against 1.24 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OH Leuven's home form reads 15W 10D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — OH Leuven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Charleroi have taken 0.94 points per game from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OH Leuven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OH Leuven are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.11 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OH Leuven
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OH Leuven and Charleroi in coming into this match?
OH Leuven have gone 19W 22D 25L in their last 66 games (1.20 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OH Leuven at home or Charleroi away?
OH Leuven's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OH Leuven at home: 1.67 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OH Leuven have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OH Leuven
4
Draws
3
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OH Leuven and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, OH Leuven have won 3, Charleroi have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did OH Leuven and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OH Leuven 48%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (OH Leuven) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: OH Leuven keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Charleroi in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OH Leuven home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OH Leuven play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of OH Leuven's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OH Leuven vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of OH Leuven's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OH Leuven and Charleroi tend to score early?
OH Leuven have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OH Leuven's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, as OH Leuven and Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.41 xG and Charleroi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OH Leuven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 45% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 24%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 39%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OH Leuven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.