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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant OH Leuven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Antwerp 3-0 at Den Dreef, Conference League Group - 38, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.06 xG and Antwerp 0.95 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OH Leuven beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antwerp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Antwerp attack 0.77 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 38% | Draw 31% | Antwerp 32%, with OH Leuven to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 38%, Antwerp 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Antwerp's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — OH Leuven 1.05 PPG, Antwerp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights