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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven and Anderlecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven and Anderlecht finished level at 1-1 at Den Dreef, Regular Season - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting OH Leuven 1.03 xG and Anderlecht 1.29 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Anderlecht attack 1.04 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it OH Leuven 28% | Draw 31% | Anderlecht 41%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OH Leuven 35%, Anderlecht 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

OH Leuven's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Anderlecht's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights