Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Zulte Waregem at Soevereinstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Soevereinstadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.50 PPG versus Zulte Waregem's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lommel United, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 56% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 56% | Zulte Waregem 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.48 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.838 / defence 0.708 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.759 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.343. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 Lommel United games / 40 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 18%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 30% | Zulte Waregem 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 55% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Lommel United 1.48 / Zulte Waregem 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.838 / def 0.708 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.759 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Zulte Waregem xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 55% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lommel United and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Record (6 meetings): Lommel United 3W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.84) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.77
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.20
0.72
Zulte Waregem xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
4%
23.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.72 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 23W 11D 12L from 46 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 19L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 12W 4D 7L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 6W 7D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 games (1.74 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Lommel United's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.74 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lommel United
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 52%, Zulte Waregem 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lommel United) and 61% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 26% of games; Zulte Waregem in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lommel United's games and 61% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lommel United's matches and 61% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Lommel United and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.