Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Soevereinstadion plays host to Lommel United versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lommel United have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lommel United haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Soevereinstadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Lommel United against 2.00 for Union St. Gilloise. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 63% versus Union St. Gilloise 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 63% | Union St. Gilloise 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.07 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.982 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.323. Data: 0 Lommel United games / 30 Union St. Gilloise games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 27% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 47%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Union St. Gilloise 2.13. Union St. Gilloise hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 60% | Union St. Gilloise 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 27% | Draw 26% | Union St. Gilloise 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.07 / Union St. Gilloise 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Union St. Gilloise attack 0.982 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 27% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lommel United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.85) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.98x) against Lommel United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
27%
3.68
26%
3.86
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.56
1.49
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.49 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lommel United's recent record stands at 20W 9D 9L from 38 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. Lommel United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 4L across 38 games — 2.16 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. Union St. Gilloise haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Lommel United against 2.16 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 11W 3D 5L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 7W 8D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Attack vs Defence
Lommel United are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.58 scored and 0.68 conceded. Lommel United's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Pre-Season
Union St. Gilloise
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 games (1.82 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 24W 10D 4L in their last 38 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Lommel United's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.89 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 47%.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 63%, Union St. Gilloise 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Lommel United) and 37% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise in 32%; Union St. Gilloise in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lommel United's games and 53% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Lommel United's recent games and 37% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.