Lommel United vs Kortrijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Kortrijk at Soevereinstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Soevereinstadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Kortrijk — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Lommel United have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Kortrijk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Lommel United's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kortrijk have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 58% versus Kortrijk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.49 xG and Kortrijk 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.770 / defence 0.797 | Kortrijk attack 0.573 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.192. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kortrijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Lommel United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 Lommel United games / 7 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 61% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 13%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Kortrijk's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Kortrijk lead the H2H ledger, but Lommel United carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 40% | Kortrijk 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 61% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 32% | xG Lommel United 1.49 / Kortrijk 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.770 / def 0.797 | Kortrijk attack 0.573 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Kortrijk xG
32%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Kortrijk kick off?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Soevereinstadion.
Where is Lommel United vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Kortrijk part of?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 61% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Lommel United and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
Record (4 meetings): Lommel United 0W | Draws 1 | Kortrijk 3W.
What form are Lommel United and Kortrijk in?
Lommel United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.77) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 0-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.84
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.03
0.54
Kortrijk xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
3%
33.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.54 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 21W 4D 13L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.66 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 6W 3D 9L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kortrijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.53 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 21W 4D 13L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Kortrijk away?
Lommel United's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.89 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lommel United
1
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 0, Kortrijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 50%, Kortrijk 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 50% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Lommel United have failed to score in 28% of games; Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lommel United's recent matches and 44% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lommel United's recent games and 50% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.