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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zulte Waregem.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat Zulte Waregem 3-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.89 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 55% | Draw 28% | Zulte Waregem 17%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 60%, Zulte Waregem 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with KVC Westerlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights