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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat KVC Westerlo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat KVC Westerlo 1-2 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 2.45 xG and St. Truiden 1.06 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. KVC Westerlo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St. Truiden outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against St. Truiden attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 66% | Draw 21% | St. Truiden 13%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 68%, St. Truiden 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.03 PPG, St. Truiden 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights