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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo and OH Leuven finished level at 3-3 at Het Kuipje, Conference League Group - 36, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.24 xG and OH Leuven 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KVC Westerlo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OH Leuven outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against OH Leuven attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 37% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 35%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 53%, OH Leuven 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.32 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights