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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KVC Westerlo beat OH Leuven 2-0 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 10, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.74 xG and OH Leuven 0.94 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against OH Leuven attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 54% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 18%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 63%, OH Leuven 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.24 PPG, OH Leuven 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KVC Westerlo win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights