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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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KVC Westerlo and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 12, as KVC Westerlo and Dender drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.83 xG and Dender 0.85 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. KVC Westerlo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Dender attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 60% | Draw 24% | Dender 16%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 61%, Dender 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.27 PPG, Dender 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights