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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KVC Westerlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 1-3 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.66 xG and Charleroi 1.22 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against Charleroi attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 45% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 26%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 69%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.10 PPG, Charleroi 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights