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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out KV Mechelen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat KV Mechelen 0-1 at Achter de Kazerne, Championship Group - 32, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 0.99 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.08 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KV Mechelen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 0.97 / defence 0.87 against Union St. Gilloise attack 0.94 / defence 0.77, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 33% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 37%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 48%, Union St. Gilloise 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights