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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant St. Truiden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KV Mechelen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 1-4 at Achter de Kazerne, Championship Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.15 xG and St. Truiden 1.32 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.32 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 0.97 / defence 0.88 against St. Truiden attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 32% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 41%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 49%, St. Truiden 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.34 PPG, St. Truiden 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights