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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as KV Mechelen edge out Charleroi 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KV Mechelen beat Charleroi 1-0 at Achter de Kazerne, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KV Mechelen 1.32 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KV Mechelen attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Charleroi attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KV Mechelen 40% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 32%, with KV Mechelen to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KV Mechelen 50%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KV Mechelen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Charleroi's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KV Mechelen 1.32 PPG, Charleroi 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KV Mechelen win broke the near-deadlock. KV Mechelen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights