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Prediction vindicated as Union St. Gilloise edge out Kortrijk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Kortrijk 1-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 0.73 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.68 / defence 1.26 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.30 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 13% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 60%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 55%, Union St. Gilloise 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights