🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat OH Leuven 2-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.07 xG and OH Leuven 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. OH Leuven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against OH Leuven attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 32% | Draw 37% | OH Leuven 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, OH Leuven 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.86 PPG, OH Leuven 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights