Kortrijk 4-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Relegation Round sees Lommel United travel to Guldensporenstadion to take on Kortrijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldensporenstadion this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lommel United have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Lommel United have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kortrijk 1.60 PPG, Lommel United 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kortrijk, 0 for Lommel United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Kortrijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Kortrijk in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lommel United in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 39% versus Lommel United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 48% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.42 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.786 / defence 1.130 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Kortrijk games / 0 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 30%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Lommel United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Lommel United | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Kortrijk 1.42 / Lommel United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.786 / def 1.130 | Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Lommel United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Lommel United kick off?
Kortrijk vs Lommel United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Lommel United?
Kortrijk 4 - 2 Lommel United.
Where is Kortrijk vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Lommel United part of?
Kortrijk vs Lommel United is a Relegation Round fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 44% chance of winning, Lommel United a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kortrijk and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Lommel United?
Record (1 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Lommel United in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Lommel United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kortrijk's attack rating (0.79) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.80
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.55
1.13
Lommel United xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.13 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 9W 7D 17L from 33 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 16W 3D 14L across 33 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 8W 2D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.61 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Lommel United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 9W 7D 17L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 16W 3D 14L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.12 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and Lommel United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kortrijk's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
1
Draws
0
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Lommel United?
From 4 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, Lommel United have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Lommel United?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Lommel United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Kortrijk and 69% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 31%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Lommel United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 50% of Lommel United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Kortrijk's matches and 69% of Lommel United's.
Do Kortrijk and Lommel United tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Lommel United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Lommel United 4-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.42 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lommel United outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 44% | Draw 26% | Lommel United 30%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 48%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.