Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk at Guldensporenstadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kortrijk register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Charleroi in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kortrijk, 0 for Charleroi and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 57% versus Charleroi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 51% | Charleroi 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.38 xG and Charleroi 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.941 / defence 1.259 | Charleroi attack 0.948 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.279. Data: 61 Kortrijk games / 60 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 33% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 39%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 70% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 33% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Kortrijk 1.38 / Charleroi 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.941 / def 1.259 | Charleroi attack 0.948 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Charleroi xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 33% chance of winning, Charleroi a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Record (3 meetings): Kortrijk 0W | Draws 3 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.94x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.95x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.57
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.91
1.53
Charleroi xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.53 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 16W 16D 29L from 61 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 24L across 61 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 8W 8D 14L from 30 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 6D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.51 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 26W 11D 24L in their last 61 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.07 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
3
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2024, when Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 53%, Charleroi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kortrijk and 73% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 30% of games; Charleroi in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Kortrijk's games and 57% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kortrijk's matches and 73% of Charleroi's.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.38 xG and Charleroi 1.53 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Charleroi attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 33% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 39%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 51%, Charleroi 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.