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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.21 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 37% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 29%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 58%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, Charleroi 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights