Kortrijk 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kortrijk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kortrijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kortrijk at Guldensporenstadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kortrijk are significantly better at Guldensporenstadion than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
It is worth noting that Charleroi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 44% versus Charleroi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 58% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.784 / defence 1.212 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.032. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Kortrijk games / 49 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 37% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 29%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Charleroi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kortrijk 50% | Charleroi 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 37% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Kortrijk 1.31 / Charleroi 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.784 / def 1.212 | Charleroi attack 0.925 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Charleroi xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 37% chance of winning, Charleroi a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Record (8 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 5W.
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.78x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.93x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
37%
2.73
34%
2.93
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.47
1.16
Charleroi xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.16 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 15W 10D 30L from 55 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kortrijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 24L across 55 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Kortrijk against 1.25 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 10W 4D 13L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 6W 5D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kortrijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.04 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 10D 30L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.26 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
2
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 52%, Charleroi 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kortrijk) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 30% of games; Charleroi in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 41% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Kortrijk's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Kortrijk 0-1 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.31 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kortrijk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.21 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 37% | Draw 34% | Charleroi 29%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 58%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.00 PPG, Charleroi 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.