🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 1, as Kortrijk and Cercle Brugge drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.28 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.08 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 39% | Draw 32% | Cercle Brugge 29%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Cercle Brugge 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.93 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights