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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Beerschot VA 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Beerschot VA 3-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.55 xG and Beerschot VA 0.86 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kortrijk beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beerschot VA outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Beerschot VA attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 30% | Beerschot VA 19%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kortrijk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kortrijk 1.05 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights