Kortrijk 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kortrijk at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host AS Eupen at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 1D 7L at Guldensporenstadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AS Eupen away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kortrijk, 1 for AS Eupen and 5 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus AS Eupen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 54% | AS Eupen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.764 / defence 1.144 | AS Eupen attack 0.653 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Kortrijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Kortrijk games / 64 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | AS Eupen 4.35. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Kortrijk 50% | AS Eupen 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Kortrijk 1.47 / AS Eupen 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.764 / def 1.144 | AS Eupen attack 0.653 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AS Eupen xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kick off?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen part of?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kortrijk and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Record (7 meetings): Kortrijk 1W | Draws 5 | AS Eupen 1W.
What form are Kortrijk and AS Eupen in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.76x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.77
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.34
0.88
AS Eupen xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.88 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 15W 14D 39L from 68 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 43L across 68 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 0.87 PPG, AS Eupen on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 8W 8D 18L from 34 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 6W 4D 24L across 34 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 0.99 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 14D 39L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 14W 11D 43L in their last 68 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or AS Eupen away?
Kortrijk's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.94 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kortrijk and AS Eupen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kortrijk's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
5
Draws
2
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
From 10 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, AS Eupen have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, AS Eupen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kortrijk) and 53% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 38% of games; AS Eupen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play AS Eupen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 44% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kortrijk's recent games and 53% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 0.88 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against AS Eupen attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 54%, AS Eupen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.87 PPG, AS Eupen 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.