Gent vs Zulte Waregem Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Gent (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Gent face Zulte Waregem.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gent host Zulte Waregem at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Gent — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gent's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Zulte Waregem have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Gent are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Gent: 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Zulte Waregem, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2026, ended Gent 2–0 Zulte Waregem — a Gent win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Gent and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Gent trading profile (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem trading profile (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 47% versus Zulte Waregem 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 49% | Zulte Waregem 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gent surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Zulte Waregem have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.33 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.101 / defence 0.645 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.743 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.356. Zulte Waregem's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Gent have a tight defence (rating 0.645), which is pulling Zulte Waregem's projected output down. Data: built from Gent's last 41 games and Zulte Waregem's last 41.
Result probabilities: Gent 75% | Draw 16% | Zulte Waregem 9%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.33 | Draw 6.16 | Zulte Waregem 11.59. The model has a clear lean to Gent (75%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gent 30% (last 10 home games) | Zulte Waregem 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 75% | Draw 16% | Zulte Waregem 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Gent 2.33 / Zulte Waregem 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.101 / def 0.645 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.743 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Gent (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Gent xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Zulte Waregem xG
43%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem FAQs
What time does Gent vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Planet Group Arena.
Where is Gent vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Gent vs Zulte Waregem is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 75% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gent and Zulte Waregem will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Gent vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.10) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Gent's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gent's last 41 games and Zulte Waregem's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.16
9%
11.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Gent xG
Total xG
2.98
0.65
Zulte Waregem xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.16
16%
Draw
11.59
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
118.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Gent and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Gent and 0.65 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gent's recent record stands at 21W 12D 14L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 20L across 47 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gent on 1.60 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gent have managed 13W 6D 5L from their last 24 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across their last 24 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gent come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gent are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.40 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Gent (Home) vs Zulte Waregem (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gent
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Form FAQs
What form are Gent and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Gent's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 1.88 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Gent or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gent have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Mar 2023, when Gent won Zulte Waregem 2-6 Gent.
Gent's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Gent
0
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Gent have won 6, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Zulte Waregem 0-2 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Zulte Waregem?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 42%, Zulte Waregem 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Gent) and 62% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Zulte Waregem in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gent vs Zulte Waregem Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gent and Zulte Waregem matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gent's recent matches and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gent and Zulte Waregem matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gent's recent games and 62% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and Zulte Waregem matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Gent's recent matches and 79% of Zulte Waregem's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.