Gent 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gent vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gent and St. Truiden meet at Ghelamco Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Gent (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gent have posted 5W 2D 3L at Ghelamco Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
St. Truiden have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Gent against 2.40 for St. Truiden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 43% versus St. Truiden 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 46% | St. Truiden 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.55 xG and St. Truiden 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.134 / defence 0.921 | St. Truiden attack 0.992 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.107. Data: 35 Gent games / 35 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 25%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | St. Truiden 4.00. Gent hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gent if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gent 40% | St. Truiden 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Ghelamco Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Gent 1.55 / St. Truiden 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.134 / def 0.921 | St. Truiden attack 0.992 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Gent (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.01
St. Truiden xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs St. Truiden kick off?
Gent vs St. Truiden kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Ghelamco Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Gent 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Gent vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Ghelamco Arena.
What competition is Gent vs St. Truiden part of?
Gent vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 50% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gent and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in?
Gent (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.13) and St. Truiden's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (0.99x) against Gent's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.92
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Gent xG
Total xG
2.56
1.01
St. Truiden xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Gent and 1.01 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gent's recent record stands at 20W 8D 7L from 35 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 13L across 35 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gent have managed 10W 2D 4L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 8W 2D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gent are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.23 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Gent have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 20W 8D 7L in their last 35 games (1.94 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 7D 13L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or St. Truiden away?
Gent's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.00 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gent or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gent have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gent
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gent and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when St. Truiden 1-1 Gent.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gent 44%, St. Truiden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gent) and 31% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; St. Truiden in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Gent's recent matches and 38% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gent vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gent's recent games and 31% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gent and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and St. Truiden finished level at 1-1 at Ghelamco Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.55 xG and St. Truiden 1.01 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against St. Truiden attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 25%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 46%, St. Truiden 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.