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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Gent 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Gent 1-2 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.62 xG and St. Truiden 1.04 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against St. Truiden attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 50% | Draw 26% | St. Truiden 24%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a St. Truiden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, St. Truiden 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

St. Truiden's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.25 PPG, St. Truiden 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. St. Truiden (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights