Gent vs St. Truiden – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gent's attack rating (1.19) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.02x) against Gent's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
75%
1.33
17%
5.80
8%
12.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Gent xG
Total xG
3.83
0.95
St. Truiden xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
12.92
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
6%
17.80
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Gent and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Gent and 0.95 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.