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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out RAAL La Louvière 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat RAAL La Louvière 1-0 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.83 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gent fell 0.8 short of their projected output. RAAL La Louvière landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Gent 54% | Draw 29% | RAAL La Louvière 16%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 53%, RAAL La Louvière 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Gent winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights