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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gent.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Gent 1-3 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.64 xG and OH Leuven 0.87 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.30 / defence 0.98 against OH Leuven attack 0.70 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gent 55% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 20%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a OH Leuven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 52%, OH Leuven 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gent's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

OH Leuven's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gent 1.29 PPG, OH Leuven 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights